Cardinals hang on to edge Marlins
Baseball Betting Lines
08/14/2008 -
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Glaus collected a game-high four hits and
finished with an RBI and a run scored to lead the St. Louis Cardinals over the
Florida Marlins, 6-4, in the third game of a four-game set at Dolphin Stadium.
Jason LaRue knocked in the go-ahead runs with a double in the seventh and Skip
Schumaker posted three hits for the Cardinals, who won for just the third time
in seven games.
Mike Jacobs drove in two runs on a pair of hits for the Marlins, who have come
up on the losing end in 13 of the last 18 times they played the Cardinals in
South Beach.
Braden Looper (11-9) earned the win against his former team in seven innings
of work. The righty only allowed one earned run, two total, on five hits and
one walk, while striking out five.
"The couple mistakes I made today didn't cost me," Looper said. "In my last
couple games [against the Marlins] I made a few and it seems like they hit a
homer every time, where today I made a few mistakes and got away with them."
Renyel Pinto (2-4) suffered the loss as the second Florida pitcher of the
night. In only two-third of an inning, Pinto was tagged for two runs on two
hits.
The game was even at two, but the Cardinals tallied two runs in the seventh
for their first lead of the game and they stayed in front the rest of the way.
Schumaker and Albert Pujols led off with back-to-back singles and then moved
to second and third, respectively, on a deep fly ball hit by Ryan Ludwick.
Then with two outs, Justin Miller handed Glaus an intentional walk and LaRue
made him pay with a two-run double to center that plated Schumaker and Pujols,
while Glaus was thrown out at the plate to end the inning.
In the eighth, the Cardinals pushed their edge to 5-2 on an RBI single to left
by Schumaker. Adam Kennedy came around on the one-out hit after he smacked a
base hit and moved into scoring position on a single by Cesar Izturis.
The Marlins almost drew even in the bottom of the frame but came up one short
at 5-4. Pinch-hitter Wes Helms blooped in a lead-off single and jogged to
second when the next batter, Hanley Ramirez, was hit with a 2-2 pitch. After a
fly out, Helms ran through a stop sign to score on a single to left by Jorge
Cantu. Jacobs then brought in Ramirez with a double to right to make it a one-
run game. Dan Uggla drew a walk to load the bases with one out, but Chris
Perez got Josh Willingham to ground into a double play to end the threat.
The Cards added an insurance run in the ninth on an RBI double by Glaus that
plated Felipe Lopez, who reached with a triple.
Perez recorded his third save of the year, a five-out one in which he only
allowed two walks, while also striking out two.
Ricky Nolasco walked away with a no-decision for Florida after he surrendered
two runs on 10 hits in six innings.
"I tried to keep us close," Nolasco said. "I had a lot of base-runners on
base. I just tried to limit the damage and make pitches. Just battled. Tried
to do my job right there."
The Marlins opened up the scoring right away with a run in the first thanks to
an error by Glaus. Ramirez led off and reached first when Glaus could not
handle a ball hit to third. Ramirez eventually got to second with two outs on
a Cantu groundout, and the shortstop raced home via a base hit to left by
Jacobs.
St. Louis knotted the game at one in the fourth on a sacrifice fly to left hit
by Kennedy. Glaus crossed the plate after he led off with a single, moved to
second on a LaRue groundout and trotted to third on a single by Looper.
In the fifth, the Marlins grabbed a 2-1 edge after they loaded the bases with
one out on three straight singles by John Baker, Alfredo Amezaga and Nolasco.
Baker then came around on the fourth consecutive base hit of the inning by
Ramirez.
But once again, the Cardinals would draw even in the sixth when Rick Ankiel
scored on Kennedy's sac fly to left.
Game Notes
The Cardinals pounded out 18 hits...St. Louis has seven errors in its last
four games...The Marlins have gone a season-high four games without an error.
<< D-Backs reinstate Slaten from DL, option Buckner
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks reinstated left-handed
pitcher Doug Slaten from the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday.
Slaten, who was placed on the DL on July 19 with a right knee strain, is 0-3
with a 4.40 earned
<< Wells' slam helps Blue Jays hold off Tigers
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vernon Wells clubbed his fifth career grand
slam and David Purcey was stellar on the hill, as the Toronto Blue Jays
staved off a late rally to edge the Detroit Tigers, 4-3, in the third
install
<< A's lose Chavez for rest of season
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland Athletics third baseman Eric Chavez
will miss the rest of the season after having successful surgery to repair
his right shoulder.
The six-time Gold Glove winner underwent a two-hour-plus proce
<< Rangers' Hamilton leaves game to be with pregnant wife
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton
left Wednesday's 8-4 loss to Boston to fly back to Texas to be with his wife,
who is close to giving birth to the couple's third child.
Hamilton was 0-for-3 in
<< Del Potro survives scare to advance in DC
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded Juan Martin del Potro was
tested in his second-round matchup at the $508,000 Legg Mason Tennis Classic
Wednesday, but the Argentine pulled through to advance in the U.S. Open tune-
up.
Hawpe, Rox edge D'Backs >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Hawpe clubbed a two-run homer in the bottom
of the eighth inning and the Colorado Rockies withstood a ninth-inning charge
from the Arizona Diamondbacks to hang on for a 6-5 win in the middle
install
Mets clobber Nationals behind huge third inning >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Murphy clubbed a two-run homer and
added an RBI single, as the New York Mets -- aided by an eight-run third
inning -- cruised to a 12-0 win in the second test of a three-game series
against
Buehrle helps White Sox complete second straight shutout of Royals >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Buehrle threw seven shutout innings, and
Jermaine Dye finished with a double and run batted in for Chicago, which shut
out Kansas City for the second game in a row, 4-0.
On Tuesday, in the opener of t
Blazers' G Roy to undergo surgery >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland Trail Blazers guard Brandon Roy will
have arthroscopic knee surgery on Thursday to repair a tear in the meniscus of
his left knee, the club announced Wednesday.
An MRI taken Tuesday revealed the tear
The San Jose Earthquakes >>
Waived defender/midfielder Amir Lowery.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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